NIGERIA’S 2027 GENERAL ELECTIONS: Lessons from the August 2025 Bye-Elections with a Focus on Taraba State

By: Kamal Hammajo

The outcome of the August 16, 2025 bye-elections across Nigeria has set the tone for what may shape the political atmosphere ahead of the 2027 general elections. The results, which cut across several states and positions, revealed shifting loyalties, emerging voter frustrations, and the resurgence of opposition parties in states long dominated by incumbents.

From Adamawa to Jigawa, Ogun to Edo, the All Progressives Congress (APC) made impressive gains, winning seats in both State Assemblies and the National Assembly. Notably, the party broke into traditional opposition strongholds, reaffirming its status as the dominant political force nationwide. Meanwhile, the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) maintained its relevance in Kano, while the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) managed to hold onto scattered victories.

TARABA STATE: A Political Turning Point?

Perhaps the most striking upset of the bye-elections came from Taraba State, where the APC clinched a State Assembly seat in the northern part of the State—a region traditionally controlled by the PDP since the return of democracy in 1999. This victory is symbolic, not only because Taraba has consistently voted PDP for over two decades, but also because the State currently has a PDP Governor, with Senator, and two members of the House of Representatives from the same zone where the bye-election was held.

Analysts point to several factors that contributed to this surprise outcome:

• Governor Agbu Kefas's Performance

Since assuming office in 2023, Governor Agbu Kefas has been criticized for not delivering tangible results to the people of Taraba. Many residents express disappointment over unmet promises, economic stagnation, and a lack of visible infrastructure development.

• The Shadow of Darius Ishaku’s Administration

Kefas also inherited the public discontent left behind by his predecessor, Darius Dickson Ishaku, whose administration was largely described as ineffective. The continuity of underperformance created a sense of disillusionment among voters.

• Weak Representation in Taraba North

The Senator representing Taraba North, Shuaibu Isa Lau, alongside two House of Representatives Members from the zone, all under the PDP, have been accused of poor representation and failing to connect with grassroots needs. Their lack of political presence has opened the door for opposition parties to make inroads.

This convergence of governance failures, coupled with a well-coordinated APC campaign strategy, helped the party break PDP’s long-standing dominance in the State.

NATIONAL IMPLICATIONS AHEAD OF 2027

The Taraba experience is a microcosm of a broader national trend: Nigerians are growing increasingly impatient with political parties and leaders who fail to deliver. While APC’s victories in multiple States reaffirm its current hold on national politics, the bye-election results also show that voter loyalty is no longer guaranteed. Performance and grassroots connection now play decisive roles in electoral outcomes.

If the Taraba upset is anything to go by, the 2027 elections could see significant realignments. The PDP risks losing more ground if it fails to rebuild trust, especially in States where its governance track record is under question. On the other hand, the APC stands to consolidate its gains if it effectively translates its current momentum into sustainable development and stronger local presence. Smaller parties like NNPP and APGA may also capitalize on voter dissatisfaction to carve out regional strongholds.

CONCLUSION

The 2025 bye-elections have reshaped Nigeria’s political map and provided a glimpse into the possible direction of the 2027 general elections. Taraba State, in particular, stands as a clear example of how voter fatigue with long-standing ruling parties can spark a political shift. If current trends persist, Nigerians in 2027 may vote less along party lines and more on performance, accountability, and trust.

The message from the electorate is clear: no party’s dominance is permanent, and only those who deliver will earn the mandate of the people.