By: Kamal Hammajo, Tuesday 26th August, 2025
As the 2027 general elections draw nearer, Nigeria’s political landscape is becoming more defined, yet increasingly complex. The zoning of the Peoples Democratic Party’s (PDP) presidential ticket to the South has set the tone for heated debates across the country. While the decision is seen by some as a bold move to reposition the party, it also risks alienating its traditional strongholds in the North. With the All Progressives Congress (APC) holding power under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and the African Democratic Congress (ADC) emerging as a new force attracting heavyweight politicians, the political contest promises to be one of the most competitive in Nigeria’s democratic history.
For the PDP, fielding a Southern candidate may appeal to southern sentiments, but it comes at a cost. The North, which holds the largest voting bloc, may view this as another eight years of exclusion from power. This dynamic is particularly sensitive given that in 2023, the North was already divided among APC, PDP, and the Labour Party, signaling that its support is no longer guaranteed to any single party.
On the side of the APC, President Tinubu’s incumbency gives the ruling party a natural edge, coupled with the structural advantage of controlling both federal and most State institutions. The presence of Vice President Kashim Shettima, a strong figure in the North-East, further consolidates APC’s position in a region where former Vice President Atiku Abubakar had long enjoyed influence. This makes Atiku’s chances in his home zone more complicated, as Shettima remains not only a political force but also an asset to Tinubu’s balancing strategy.
Meanwhile, the ADC is gradually positioning itself as a credible third force. With Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi reportedly aligning under its banner, and the involvement of other figures like Nasir El-Rufai, among others the party could offer Nigerians a fresh alternative to the APC-PDP dominance. A potential Atiku-Obi pairing under ADC could balance North-South and Muslim-Christian interests in ways that neither APC nor PDP may easily replicate. This raises the possibility of a strong three-horse race once again, reminiscent of 2023.
Beyond region and incumbency, religion will play a decisive role in shaping northern votes. APC’s Muslim-Muslim ticket was controversial in 2023 but ultimately delivered victory due to grassroots mobilization and structural strength. Going into 2027, the religious question may weigh even more heavily. A PDP Southern Christian candidate could rally Christian votes nationwide but face difficulty penetrating the Muslim-dominated North. APC, with Tinubu and Shettima, is positioned to maintain its dominance in Muslim-majority areas, though it may struggle with Christians in the North-Central, and some part of North-East. The ADC, however, could exploit this gap by presenting a balanced ticket that speaks to both faiths, offering a platform of inclusivity that resonates with voters tired of religious polarization.
This PDP NEC decision, being the first of its kind in the party’s history, marks a sharp departure from its tradition. In the past, the PDP relied on gentleman arrangements with delegates, allowing for broader participation and negotiations. By zoning and restricting the presidential ticket to one region, the party risks repeating the same mistake it made during the Goodluck Jonathan era, when such inflexibility contributed to its electoral defeat. This latest move may therefore hand President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the APC more political advantage than the PDP itself.
What makes the 2027 elections particularly interesting is that no single factor, region, religion, or incumbency, will be decisive on its own. Instead, it will be the interplay of these forces that shapes the outcome. APC remains the frontrunner due to incumbency and nationwide structure. PDP’s gamble on the South could either refresh its national identity or further weaken its northern base. ADC, though still untested at the presidential level, has the unique opportunity to disrupt the status quo if it successfully manages its coalition of diverse interests.
As the race unfolds, Nigerians should expect fierce campaigns, strategic alliances, and a contest where religion, regional identity, and incumbency will matter just as much as party manifestos. What is certain is that the road to 2027 will not be a two-party affair, but a multi-dimensional battle that could redefine the balance of power in Nigeria’s democracy.
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